Jobs! Canada’s labour market surprised to the upside in September, adding 60,400 jobs, well above expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 7.1% as more people entered the workforce. Gains were concentrated in full-time and public-sector roles, with manufacturing alone adding 27,800 positions. The data suggest the job market remains resilient despite U.S. trade tensions and recent economic softness, potentially reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Canada will pause rate cuts at its Oct. 29 meeting. However, total employment remains down over the past quarter, and hours worked fell 0.2%, signaling ongoing slack even amid headline strength. 

Japan’s decades-old ruling coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito fell apart after talks between LDP leader Sanae Takaichi and Komeito’s Tetsuo Saito broke down over disagreements on regulating political donations, ending a 26-year partnership that had underpinned political stability. The split leaves Takaichi scrambling to form a minority government amid market volatility and a packed diplomatic schedule, including a visit from Donald Trump. The political turmoil jolted currency markets, sending the yen fluctuating around 152 per dollar, and may complicate the Bank of Japan’s rate-hike decisions as inflation pressures persist. Analysts warn the collapse could lead to a fragile government or fresh elections, while Takaichi seeks new alliances with opposition parties to secure parliamentary backing ahead of key international summits. 

China has expanded its rare earth export controls ahead of a Trump–Xi summit, adding five new elements, holmium, erbium, thulium, europium, and ytterbium, plus dozens of refining technologies and stricter licensing rules for foreign firms using Chinese materials. The move tightens Beijing’s grip on critical supply chains for semiconductors, defense systems, and EVs, mirroring U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips. New regulations will require foreign companies to obtain Chinese export licenses even if no Chinese entity is directly involved, while defense-related and advanced semiconductor users will face tougher scrutiny. Analysts say the measures strengthen China’s leverage before trade talks and signal a deepening global supply chain split between China and the West. The announcement sent shares of Chinese and U.S. rare earth producers higher, as markets anticipate further disruption and localization in the global rare earths industry. 

The U.S. government shutdown continues to drag on with no resolution in sight, disrupting daily life and threatening economic growth as federal services grind to a halt. Air travel delays, shuttered taxpayer assistance, and closed national parks highlight the immediate fallout, while over 250,000 federal workers have already missed paychecks and millions more could soon follow, including U.S. troops if the impasse continues. Economists estimate the shutdown could shave 0.1–0.2% off GDP each week, a hit worsened by the suspension of key government data releases. Critical programs like food assistance and flood insurance face funding shortfalls, and agencies are resorting to ad hoc furloughs to stay within legal limits. Politically, President Trump is leveraging the standoff to pressure Democrats, while the risk of missed military pay and mounting travel chaos could soon force both sides back to the table. 

The private credit market is showing signs of strain as investors pull back from business development companies amid falling payouts and weaker sentiment following the Fed’s rate cuts. With most BDC loans tied to floating rates, declining interest income is forcing major funds, including Blackstone’s and Oaktree’s, to trim dividends for the first time, while others are expected to follow as dividend coverage ratios fall. Shares of leading BDCs like Blackstone Secured Lending and Blue Owl Capital have dropped 15–20% this year, reflecting concerns about tighter yields, rising payment-in-kind debt, and potential credit risks, especially in software lending exposed to AI disruption. Although lower rates reduce borrowing costs for lenders, growing competition and investor skepticism suggest the $1.7 trillion private credit market faces mounting pressure as returns compress and defaults loom as a key risk. 

Chinese consumer spending during this year’s eight-day Golden Week holiday fell to a three-year low, with average spending per trip down 0.55% to 911 yuan, disappointing hopes that a stock market rally would boost consumption. Despite an increase in total trips and a 15% rise in overall tourism revenue to 809 billion yuan, weak spending highlights ongoing caution amid economic headwinds such as property sector woes, job insecurity, and fierce domestic competition. Analysts said the wealth effect from recent market gains has yet to translate into stronger consumption, while spending patterns showed a preference for short, affordable regional trips and midscale hotels. The box office also suffered, with revenues down nearly one-third from last year due to a lack of blockbuster releases, underscoring muted enthusiasm among consumers. 

Not too shabby for a college dropout. Intercontinental Exchange (otherwise known as the other ICE) is investing up to $2 billion in Polymarket at an $8 billion valuation, which makes 27-year-old founder Shayne Coplan the youngest self-made billionaire according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Coplan dropped out of NYU, pivoted from crypto to prediction markets, and launched Polymarket in 2020. It was not an easy road for Coplan that included regulatory trouble, a $1.4 million CFTC settlement in 2022, a post-election FBI raid in 2024, and a U.S. user ban. Regulators dropped their probes in July, and Polymarket bought CFTC-licensed QCEX for $112 million, that allowed it to operate legally in the U.S. ICE’s stake links Polymarket more closely to Washington with investors that include the Founders Fund (Peter Thiel) , Vitalik Buterin (Ethereum founder), investment firms Blockchain Capital, and 1789 Capital, where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner (he is also an advisor and investor in Polymarket). 


Diversion: Truly a “wait for it” moment

Silver is higher for a second day and now nearing a record high as a historic tightening of the London spot market added steam to a rally driven by demand for safe haven assets. Spot prices rose as much as 3.7% above $51 an ounce, while the cost of borrowing the precious metal for one month in London soared to an annualized record of 35%. Earlier this year, fears that the U.S. could put tariffs on silver spurred a surge of metal to New York (similar to copper), drawing down inventories in London and reducing the amount of metal available to borrow. However, much of the silver in London is held in vaults backing ETFs, and not available to buy or borrow on the market. The tightness in London has led a typical premium of a few cents for futures in New York to collapse into a discount of more than $2.50 an ounce below spot prices. The scale of that dislocation may end up easing market tightness in London, as traders buy cheaper metal in the US and ship it to the UK to capture higher prices. But for now, the squeeze is driving prices closer to a $52.50-an-ounce record from 1980, set on a now-defunct contract on the Chicago Board of Trade. Silver is up more than 75% this year, by far outpacing gold’s advance.