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Daily market commentary
The Launch Pad 
January 24, 2022
  
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Today

Futures fell this morning following the S&P 500′s worst week since March 2020, as investors await more corporate earnings results and a key policy decision from the Fed. It’s a busy earnings week this week with nearly half of the Dow Jones and about one-fifth of the S&P500 companies reporting.  On the tech front, Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. Will report this week under additional pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 now on pace for its worst month since the 2008 financial crisis. A grim outlook from  Netflix was the latest excuse for investors to sell tech shares causing Amazon and Meta (Facebook) to fall over 20% from their high. More than US$1.7 trillion in value has been erased from the Nasdaq 100 so far this month, with the index entering a correction after falling more than 10% from a recent peak. The industry that has powered the bull-market rally from the depths of the pandemic has recently suffered over concerns over skyrocketing valuations and a potential for slowing earnings. There are still winners out there however, as investors rotate out of growth and into cyclical more names with energy producers being the only ones in the green so far this year in the U.S. 

According to a new Bloomberg report, just 9% of the roughly 1,300 ESG-focused exchange-traded funds have more than $1 billion of assets, exposing the category to large drops in assets if  concentrated investors pull out. A new report highlights that most of last year’s growth was tied to financing arrangements with big investors such as pension funds making large initial investments in new ETFs, rather than organic growth. The report highlights that concentration risks are real, noting that assets dropped 91% at the iShares ESG MSCI EM Leaders after its largest holder changed allocation strategies. What was once the second-biggest exchange-traded fund investing in sustainable emerging-market companies became a shadow of its former self. In the days leading up to Christmas Eve, the iShares ESG MSCI EM Leaders ETF (LDEM) lost 91% of its investments, leaving its total assets depleted at about $69 million, compared with $803 million on Dec. 21. Only one holder of LDEM’s shares owned enough to account for such a steep outflow: Ilmarinen, the Helsinki-based pension company that made a $600 million investment in the fund when it launched in February 2020.  

Despite a labour shortage in parts of the country, the Canadian government has put a hold on  processing high-skilled immigrant applications. With “an estimated 76,000 applicants in the inventory” for federal high skilled worker applications, the government has what it needs to meet targets until 2023. While the current immigration plan forecasts bringing in 110,500 skilled workers next year, the department claims that the amount may be cut in half due to a lack of processing power. 

Top U.S. and Russian diplomats have failed to make a major breakthrough in talks to resolve the crisis over Ukraine, although they have agreed to keep talking. This comes at a time of high tensions between Russia and the West over Russia’s massing of troops near its border with Ukraine although Moscow has insisted it has no plans to invade. The U.K. has said that Russia will face severe economic sanctions if it installs a puppet regime in Ukraine after Britain accused the Kremlin of seeking to install a pro-Russian leader there. Britain made the accusation over the weekend, also saying Russian intelligence officers had been in contact with a number of former Ukrainian politicians as part of plans for an invasion. The Russian Foreign Ministry dismissed the comments as “disinformation,” accusing Britain and NATO of “escalating tensions” over Ukraine. The U.S. State Department is now urging U.S. citizens in Ukraine to leave the country immediately, as Russia’s military buildup at the border shows no sign of dissipating.  

The selloff in cryptocurrencies gained momentum this morning, with Bitcoin tumbling to a six-month low and other digital tokens seeing even bigger losses. Bitcoin sank as much as 6.6% and fell below the US$34,000 mark, continuing a six-day downturn while Ether retreated 7.6% and touched US$2,201, also the lowest since July. Crypto has come under widespread selling pressure in recent days, with traders pointing to hawkish signals from the Fed and a selloff in technology shares as reasons for traders to withdraw from risky assets. Since its all-time high in November, Bitcoin has tumbled more than 50%. 


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Company news

Halliburton beat earnings estimates and more than double it’s dividend with all the main business units experiencing revenue growth.  As the largest oilfield contractor in the U.S. and Canada, Halliburton stands to gain the most from a spending recovery that’s led by North America, which larger rival Schlumberger said last week should grow by at least 20% - oil patch companies are seeing a resurgence in profitability as crude demand rebounds from an historic global collapse. Halliburton is the last of the big three oilfield-service giants to disclose results for the final three months of the year.

Colliers International Group announced it has entered into an agreement to make a strategic investment in Basalt Infrastructure Partners LLP - a leading transatlantic infrastructure investment management firm with more than $8.5 billion of assets under management - by acquiring 75% of Basalt from its founders and a significant third-party financial investor. The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions and approvals and is expected to close in the second half of 2022. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

Kohl’s shares are looking to open higher with two suitors reaching out with potential deals. Sycamore Partners is looking for some action just days after a suitor backed by hedge fund Starboard Value LP emerged with a bid of $64 a share, a 37% premium to its Jan. 21 closing price, worth about $9 billion. Kohl’s has already been under fire from activist investor Macellum Advisors, which has been urging the company to make board changes or consider a sale. Kohl’s, like other department stores, has been trying to boost foot traffic and sales at its stores through partnerships with other retailers, most notably e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc.   

As password creation gets more creative with many now requiring a combination of letters, numbers and symbols, 1Password, a Toronto-headquartered password management app is trying to ease the tension between security and convenience. The app company says it has raised $620 million at a $6.8 billion valuation, making it one of Canada’s most valuable tech firms. 1Password, which started out as a consumer password management app, changed direction slightly in 2015 and started to build a product for businesses that allows passwords to be securely shared and managed across teams. It is now used by over 100,000 companies including the likes of Slack and IBM. 


Commodities

Oil prices are lower as geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East heightened concerns about an already tight supply outlook, while OPEC and its allies continued to struggle to raise their output. Both benchmarks are higher for a fifth straight week in a row with prices hitting their highest since October 2014. At the time of writing, NYM WTI Crude futures are down –0.27% to US$84.90/bbl and ICE Brent Crude futures are down –0.15% at US$87.79/bbl.      

Gold prices are higher and near a two-month high as U.S. bond yields continued to fall and investors looked to invest in the safe-haven metal over concerns about tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Traders are looking ahead to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting starting tomorrow. The Fed is expected tighten monetary policy at a much faster pace than thought a month ago to tame persistently high inflation. Gold Spot is up +0.25% to US$1840.11/oz this morning. 


Fixed income and economics

Remember when central bank announcements were simply just an exercise in procedure? A decade’s worth of anchored policy used to bring out the yawns and shoulder shrugs at these scheduled meetings, so much so that yours truly used to scan for how many words actually changed from statement to statement (there were instances when you could count them on one hand). But times have changed and so has the excitement level as the beginning of a new monetary policy cycle has brought renewed focus again on what central bankers actually say (Alan Greenspan is smiling somewhere). This week we get an update north and south of the 49th parallel with all eyes squarely focused on Wednesday’s dual policy meetings. The Bank of Canada begins the festivities with a 10AM EST announcement and MPR release, followed by a live presser by Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers an hour later. Bloomberg’s survey amongst 24 economists are currently predicting no change to the overnight rate target (just a third polled are calling for a tightening move) while OIS spreads have assigned a 70% likelihood of a hike. If officials embrace a rate hike this week then it’s likely they will simultaneously adjust their existing $436 billion Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program that right now sees them purchasing between around $5 billion per month. Our nation’s time in the spotlight will be short lived as the Federal Reserve culminates their two-day meeting with a 2PM EST policy update. There is a far lower probability that the Fed hikes (with the dovish overtones further exacerbated by equity markets trading deep into the red last week) as the planned liftoff date is still circled for March’s meeting. Markets will be closely watching for signals on balance sheet management though, as Chair Powell’s recent confirmation testimony noted that the Fed could allow run-off “at some point later this year” which many have circled for the fourth quarter. Toss in statements on Thursday from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (she still carries significant pull amongst senior officials) that inflation will fall close to 2% by the end of 2022, and there’s little reason to think they will want to surprise markets whatsoever. 

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Contributors: A. Innis, A. Nguyen, D.Mak, J. Price, P. Kwon

Charts are sourced to Bloomberg unless otherwise noted.

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